The classic workshop business is a discontinued model”

The classic workshop business is a discontinued model”

What do the German “car pope” Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, Director CAR – Center Automotive Research in Duisburg, and the product he analyzes have in common? Well, both still move the masses. You could get an idea of ​​this at the Raiffeisen Leasing fleet days at the ÖAMTC test site in Teesdorf.

The rush was enormous, more than 700 people followed the leasing company's invitation and literally queued up to get one of the 110 cars made available for a short test drive. We find that the automobile exerts an unbridled charisma. This also applies to Professor Dudenhöffer, who was a star guest and gave a lecture on the future of the auto industry, where no chair was left empty. But what he had to say was also remarkable in many ways. 

The good news first: “The car will not die out,” says Dudenhöffer. Quite the opposite: he even sees a great future for the automobile. This is primarily thanks to the enormous potential in growth markets such as India and China. There, just 93 out of 1,000 residents own a car, while in Europe there are almost 600 and in the USA even more than 800. 

The growth potential in the emerging markets is correspondingly huge. In a market of around 6.7 billion people, fewer than 100 per 1,000 inhabitants have a car. “They all dream of becoming motorized,” says Dudenhöffer. And if they even come close to catching up with the western markets, things would go off.

However, the expert does not expect any major declines in unit numbers in the saturated markets of Europe. This is especially true since the train is not a reliable alternative and, according to the expert, the much-vaunted car sharing will never have more than a niche existence.  

As far as technology is concerned, there is no doubt in the car king's mind where the journey is headed: "The future is electric," says Dudenhöffer - and fully electric: "You can forget about hybrids, that's over." Other alternative drive systems such as fuel cells or eFuels have poor, even “horrible” energy efficiency. eFuels would just be something for old Porsche 911 drivers or possibly for aviation or shipping. 

The car professor is certain that development of battery-electric cars, the so-called BEVs, will progress quickly. The big topic for the future is the solid-state battery. This means that a range of 1,000 kilometers would not be a problem at all, extremely fast charging would also be possible and the production of the batteries would also be much more cost-effective. 

Dudenhöffer estimates that by 2030 two thirds of all new cars sold in Germany will be electric cars. He also sees a great future in subscription models, which will gradually replace classic leasing. 

But back to e-mobility. In this context, Dudenhöffer addresses a sensitive topic completely unabashedly and emotionlessly - one that is particularly unpopular in Austria: "We should not close ourselves off from the discussion about nuclear power," he said in a conversation with the automotive industry on the sidelines of the event in Teesdorf. In view of the energy requirements and the costs, he finds it incomprehensible that Germany has abandoned nuclear energy. Because: If the number of electric cars is to increase from the current 440,000 to 15 million vehicles by the end of 2030, as planned by the German government, the country's electricity demand would explode accordingly, according to the car expert's argument, who estimates the additional demand at around 140 terawatts of electricity per year. To do this, we would have to more than double wind turbine capacity, continue to operate gas and coal-fired power plants or import nuclear power from abroad. That doesn't make sense. Against this background, foregoing nuclear power would be downright naive, as Dudenhöffer just emphasized to the German newspaper “Bild”. There he became even more explicit, calling the German exit strategy “stupid” and saying point-blank: “Whoever says E must also say A!” 

And what does the professor say to those experts who warn that the CO₂-The balance sheet of electric cars is not that good if you take into account the emissions from battery production and their disposal? “You can interpret the results however you want using various assumptions, for example about the future electricity mix,” says Dudenhöffer and follows up with an appeal: “We shouldn’t destroy e-mobility with assumptions that are horrible!” 

According to Dudenhöffer, the switch to e-mobility will by no means be the biggest challenge for the industry. He sees the biggest challenge in another trend that goes hand in hand with e-mobility: the development towards the so-called “software designed car”. 

“This is the next big thing,” says the expert. Car companies and suppliers would have to become software companies. According to Dudenhöffer, some large corporations will probably fall by the wayside and new players, some of them Chinese manufacturers, will appear on the scene. 

Dudenhöffer sees the VW Group, which has founded its own software and battery division, as being in the best position of the traditional car manufacturers, despite various teething problems in some areas. “Tesla is the car of tomorrow and VW is the closest,” is the professor’s verdict. In his opinion, the situation regarding supply bottlenecks for semiconductors will improve over the course of 2023. 

In any case, the change is extreme: “The new gear is the chip,” the boss of a large, traditional German supplier group is said to have said. Dudenhöffer is certain: The new car industry also consists of chemical companies (keyword batteries), it consists of energy companies (keyword charging stations) and - of course - it also consists of software developers. 

The latter in particular can look forward to lucrative business, as value creation around automobiles will increase, especially in the easily scalable software area with over-the-air updates. Dudenhöffer is certain that autonomous driving will come sooner or later; in China it is already partly a reality. 

Meanwhile, the auto pope is not predicting a rosy future for workshops: “The classic workshop business is a discontinued model,” says Dudenhöffer. Companies would have to prepare for the fact that they will have less sales in the future. Now it is important to use the time to reposition ourselves accordingly, according to the advice of the car pope. 

“d”