The E-Professor's Prophecy

The E-Professor's Prophecy

VEHICLE ECONOMY:Professor Schrödl, exactly 10 years ago we conducted an interview in which you said that electromobility was on the verge of a breakthrough - has your prophecy come true from today's perspective?

MANFRED SCHRÖDL: Yes, definitely. If you look at the exponentially increasing curve of new registrations, you can expect the ramp-up to begin around 2020. Since then, especially in China, electromobility has spread rapidly due to government steering measures, but in Europe the curve is also clearly pointing upwards. There is already a consensus in the industry that electric drives will prevail, while diesel and gasoline engines will only occupy niches in the future - as will hydrogen and fuel cell cars, which are not very efficient, too expensive and too complex, and also require complex infrastructure.

What hurdles does electromobility still have to overcome in order to finally replace the combustion engine?

The decision is made solely by the car buyer, and for him the price is what counts most. When compared to the actual cost per kilometer, ideologies and tastes are secondary. Although combustion engines are currently cheaper to buy, electric cars are becoming increasingly affordable. If affordable vehicles in the 20,000 euro range one day achieve a range of around 500 kilometers and a charging time of 15 minutes, the combustion engine will have finally lost out.

For ten years we have been hearing about supposed miracle batteries that are supposed to offer more capacity, charging convenience and safety at lower costs - where are we today?

In fact, the major technological leap that has been announced several times has not yet materialized. However, there are two areas in which promising progress is currently being made. On the one hand, there are high-performance power storage devices, so-called solid-state batteries, in which a solid ceramic separator will replace the liquid flammable electrolytes previously used - this will be particularly noticeable in a higher capacity in the same installation space and a shorter charging time. For example, the American company Quantumscape, which works closely with the VW Group, recently reported a breakthrough in the series production of ceramic layers, and BYD has also announced that it will bring a solid-state battery onto the market before 2030. The second promising development is in medium-performance batteries, which use sodium instead of lithium. Their performance is currently around the same level as lithium-ion batteries ten years ago, which were installed in the BMW i3 or VW e-Golf, for example. Their advantage is that they allow significantly higher charging speeds with low manufacturing costs and are also much less temperature sensitive than lithium-ion batteries. In my opinion, this technology will be established in vehicles in the 20,000 euro price range by 2030 at the latest.

What is the durability of the batteries, or how many charging cycles can a vehicle battery complete before it dramatically loses capacity?

Experience has shown that lithium-ion batteries have been greatly underestimated in this respect. I have been driving a Tesla Model X since 2016 with 260,000 kilometers on the clock. To date, its battery has only lost about 10 percent of its range, and I estimate that the capacity will still be usable for the next 150,000 kilometers.

In your opinion, is the expansion of the infrastructure progressing quickly enough to keep up with the growing number of electric cars?

In Austria and Germany we are on the right track - on average you can find a charging station with at least 50 kW every 30 kilometers. In my opinion, the infrastructure is already developed well enough that no one has to worry about being stranded with an empty battery. On my vacation trip from Vienna to Lake Garda this summer, I simply take two coffee and charging breaks of half an hour each, it works out well and you arrive at your destination relaxed.

What opportunities lie in vehicle-2-grid technology?

From the electrical engineer's perspective, this is the perfect technology to stabilize the power grid and at the same time ensure the charging infrastructure. If we assume there will be around two million electric cars in Austria in 2040 and around a third of them will be made available as temporary electricity storage, we could massively increase Austria's short-term storage capacities in addition to the existing pumped storage facilities. Technically, this wouldn't be a problem, and vehicle owners could benefit from this, for example through reduced charging rates and payments for charging/discharging behavior that benefits the network. However, the lack of agreements with network operators and insurance companies represents a greater hurdle. Among other things, the warranty rules for vehicle batteries must be adjusted if they are not only used while driving. Experience so far shows that batteries hardly lose any of their lifespan when they are often gently charged and discharged with low power and depth of discharge.

In your opinion, how will electromobility change the workshop business, or what service work and repairs have the potential to replace the loss of the combustion engine business?

It is already clear today that the service costs for an electric car are significantly lower than for a combustion engine. I actually only drive my Tesla to the workshop when I need a treat. In the last nine years I have only had a problem with the air conditioning compressor once, and a component in the suspension was replaced. But I still drive with the first brake pads because I mainly brake with recuperation. In my opinion, service costs will be reduced by a total of two thirds as a result of the widespread introduction of electromobility, and workshops will probably have to be prepared for this. A possible additional business for workshops with appropriate high-voltage infrastructure and trained staff could be determining the health status of the battery when purchasing used cars.