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EY outlines the car year 2020
The international testing and consulting company EY assesses the EU-wide car year - with mixed perspectives.
EY outlines the car year 2020
The situation on the EU new car market continued to ease slightly in June, although major differences can be observed between the individual countries. Overall, new car sales only fell by 22 percent compared to the same month last year - in May the decline was 52 percent. However, while new registrations in France actually increased (by one percent) thanks to a government scrappage bonus, Portugal, for example, recorded a decline of 56 percent. Most major markets shrank by 20 to 30 percent. Austria recorded a decline of 18 percent.
What was particularly notable in June was the good development in France, says Gerhard Schwartz, head of the Industrial Products division at EY Austria:“We are currently seeing from the example of France that targeted government support measures can have a strong impact.”
Schwartz is cautiously optimistic for the rest of the year:"In most European countries, public life continued to normalize in June and the economy is slowly getting back on track. Depending on how big the drop in sales was in the months of the lockdown, there is a more or less large backlog of new car purchases, which is now slowly clearing up."
outlook
This is the year to dateAustrian new car market is 36 percent below the previous year's level, Across the EU there has so far been a decline of 38 percent compared to the same period last year.
If we continue to successfully contain the spread of the virus and prevent the feared major second wave, Schwartz expects a decline in new registrations for Austria for the year as a whole of at best 20 percent. A decline of a quarter is realistic across the EU. But Schwartz emphasizes:"All forecasts are currently subject to great uncertainty. The decisive factor - in addition to the spread of the virus and the economic situation - will be whether there will be government support for new car buyers in other countries."
Schwartz warns against being overly optimistic about the state of the auto industry:"In any case, we currently have considerable overcapacity in Europe. Many manufacturers will not be able to avoid making painful cuts because the current overcapacity is putting massive pressure on margins. And in the coming year, the European economy will still be struggling with the economic aftermath of this crisis - even if the pandemic is over by then. High unemployment, bankruptcies and falling corporate profits will have an impact on the new car market for a long time to come. So the crisis is far from over - not even for the automotive industry."