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E-mobility is not yet the final solution”
TU professor and Fraunhofer managing director Wilfried Sihn believes that Corona will change the world permanently, that you could soon get a car as a gift and that managers need new methods. He currently still sees weaknesses in e-mobility.
E-mobility is not yet the final solution”
Automotive economy:Professor, do you think that the Corona crisis has long-term effects? Or will we eventually return to pre-crisis normality?
Wilfried Sihn:No, the new reality will be different. What we have experienced will have an impact. For example, on travel behavior, here even massive effects. I feel sorry for the AUAs of this world, the pre-crisis level will not be reached again anytime soon. Because we have learned to use existing technologies for communication and will no longer fly to Hamburg or anywhere else for every meeting, no matter how short. Of course, this also applies to other means of transport such as cars. Home office will also remain in some form.
And what lesson do you learn from the crisis?
The lesson is this: before the crisis is after the crisis! The intervals between major crises – be they political, economic, medical or ecological crises – have decreased in recent decades. We have to adapt to this, to greater dynamism and flexibility. The good old days of a beautiful, stable world are over.
This also applies to the auto industry, which is experiencing radical change. How should this be assessed?
We are experiencing an unprecedented transformation process, but we must stick to the truth. The truth is that auto executives didn't suddenly discover their green conscience. You didn’t suddenly say “We want to save the world with e-mobility”. Rather, the change towards e-mobility is politically motivated. The managers have understood that there is no other way to get the required fleet consumption under control and that the EU's penalties for non-compliance would be too expensive.
Is the electric car the last resort?
There is no way around e-mobility anymore. And this approach is fundamentally correct. But here too you have to stick to the truth and look at the matter holistically. You have to take into account the damage that occurs during battery production, which ranges from raw materials to child labor. The disposal or recycling of the batteries has not yet been resolved. And then of course the question arises as to where the electricity comes from. In Germany, for example, the share of green electricity is only around 45 percent. The consumption algorithm is also completely unrealistic; the electricity share of hybrid vehicles is valued disproportionately. And then there is the problem of the inadequate charging infrastructure. So at the current status, e-mobility is certainly not the end all be all.
What does this transformation mean for the auto industry?
There will be no winner until further notice! For the next 30 years, different systems will coexist in Europe. From today's perspective, gasoline and diesel remain at 40 to 50 percent market share because there are regions where there is nothing else. There will also be synthetic fuels. Then, in addition to purely electric vehicles, we have interim solutions via hybrids - although the use of two systems at the same time is certainly not the end all be all. But currently hybrid solutions represent around 95 percent of all electric vehicles in Europe. After all, hydrogen is an issue, especially in the area of trucks and buses. Different technologies will continue to exist, although the proportion of purely electric vehicles will increase.
What market share will electric cars have in 2050?
From today's perspective, around 50 percent.
Is a new type of manager also needed?
Absolutely. When it comes to transformation, you can't just think about electric cars, you have to take the entire mobility process into account. Many young people assume that in a few years they will no longer own a car. They think we older people are stupid: we buy an expensive car, 95 percent of which sits in a garage and we only pay for it again. It's hard to argue against that! So there will probably be more and more car sharing models. But as a manager you also need a new leadership style, away from the old-school maxim “The boss is always right”. A new corporate culture is needed; you have to motivate and inspire employees and also take their work-life balance into account. People used to just laugh about it. In short, new management methods are needed. This is what we try to convey in the MBA Automotive Industry.
What do motor vehicle companies, which are mostly run as SMEs, have to prepare for?
Are there a risk of a decline in sales in the workshop? And where do you see opportunities? Every change also brings opportunities, but you have to go along with the transformation process. This also applies to suppliers. Take Schaeffler. They have transformed from a hardware supplier to a technology group. There will be winners and losers. This also applies to car dealerships and workshops. The car is becoming a moving smartphone on four wheels - the know-how is shifting away from the classic mechanic and towards software. In the car trade, on the other hand, the old way of thinking that the customer simply has to sign at the bottom right and that's it must be abandoned. You make money from post-sale services, but not from the sale itself. I can even imagine that in ten years you will get a car as a gift. To do this you have to sign an electricity supply contract. With smartphones, you wouldn't have thought in the past that you would get them for free.