The threatened oil business

The threatened oil business

To put it bluntly, the black gold keeps many a car business alive. But dangers come from all sides: Longer service intervals, lower mileage, downsized engines with less oil and, last but not least, an electric car boom - admittedly still at an extremely low level - are declaring war on lubricants. Plus: The market is more competitive than ever. The essential question is to what extent and for how long the end consumer, who is becoming increasingly price-sensitive and responsible, is still prepared to dig so deeply into his pockets. In the long term, the automotive business should probably not rely on the great gross profit that it generates with engine oil. Essentially, the end user also trusts their auto repair shop when it comes to the right lubricant. However, if he finds this lubricant in another distribution channel at significantly lower prices, the trust is destroyed. Arguments that there is no more money to be made from a new car, that the hourly rates are too low and that the manufacturer's specifications are so high are pointless because the end consumer will not care much about it. Electric cars don't need oil, air filters or clutch linings, and even brake wear is almost negligible thanks to recuperation. The maintenance effort for electric vehicles is definitely significantly lower than for combustion engines. And motor oil, an immensely important pillar of the contribution margin, is completely eliminated.

The automotive industry has asked the lubricant giants where they want to go.

Andreas Obereder GF Obereder GmbH

"In principle, the electric motor has its place in many areas, primarily as a second vehicle and in short-distance travel, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions. Furthermore, I don't see the combustion engine being put on the sidelines in the next few years or decades. Nowadays, there is a real diesel bashing going on, whereby the diesel has significantly more advantages than the petrol engine with proper exhaust aftertreatment (e.g. with AdBlue), since the diesel emits significantly less CO2. If you look at modern ones as an example For example, until recently a new car still emitted more nitrogen oxides than a modern truck, despite its fuel consumption being five times lower. The blame lies with the car manufacturers, who simply pushed this problem away for years (the same thing happened in the commercial vehicle sector in 2003 - but the additional costs for the exhaust aftertreatment systems are manageable).

A complete shift to electromobility is currently not realistic for me. However, if this unlikely scenario were to occur at short notice, it would be difficult for the workshop to compensate for the losses.

But I also see the manufacturers branching out into car dealerships. You can also see this with the example of Tesla - or how many independent Tesla dealers do you know? This would also be a serious blow for SMEs in Austria, which, as we all know, represent the backbone of the Austrian economy.”

Hubert Huber CEO Eurolub

"I assume that the amount of lubricants in the major industrial nations will stagnate over the next ten years. After that, from today's perspective, it will be difficult even for experts to make serious forecasts. If e-mobility penetrates the mass market, falling automotive lubricant sales are conceivable. In order to be prepared for this, we at Eurolub are strengthening our export business, but without neglecting our core business in Europe at the same time.

Our sales split currently consists of fifty percent automotive lubricants, twenty-five percent industrial lubricants, around ten percent car care and fifteen percent radiator and window antifreeze. In the long term, our plan is to compensate for the declining sales in industrialized countries through larger-volume export business. The goal is for us to generate half of our sales in non-EU countries in just ten years. We are currently represented at trade fairs worldwide, for example in South Korea, China and Dubai.”

Günter Hiermaier, Head of Sales Domestic+Austria Liqui Moly

"In some countries, especially in the EU, the aim is to reduce the number of combustion engines. We are working, among other things, on an additive for hybrid vehicles, the proportion of which is significantly higher than electric vehicles and will probably remain so. And hybrid vehicles also require engine oil. In contrast, mobility with conventional engines is booming in other regions of the world. In parallel with new drive concepts, the existing ones are being gradually refined. When using synthetic fuels, for example, it should be possible to use diesel engines Operating CO2-neutrally, i.e. converting green electricity into so-called e-fuels, is a big issue for engine manufacturers. As a full-range supplier, we are well positioned for the future because our portfolio goes beyond oils and additives: care and service products, workshop concepts and much more are independent of the combustion engine As time goes, it has to go with the times.”

Andrea Dolfi, Global Technology Manager Engine Fluids & Motorsport, Petronas Lubricants

"The development in the automotive sector towards hybrid solutions aimed at sustainable and environmentally friendly mobility has a significant impact on the requirements for new lubricants. In addition, market penetration is making very rapid progress. The trend is clearly towards more sophisticated, tailor-made lubricants. The downsizing of internal combustion engines, combined with the development of new components such as direct injection, turbocharging and valve timing, requires a constantly reducing oil viscosity for less frictional losses and therefore less fuel consumption, i.e. fuel economy and emissions. This means increasingly demanding goals in terms of oxidation, stability, fuel dilution, oil ventilation, air inclusions, wear protection and, last but not least, the durability of the turbocharger. In addition, there are smaller oil sumps and higher thermodynamic efficiency, which poses an additional challenge for the formulation of base oils and additives. It remains to be seen which suppliers are prepared for these drastic changes in the development of engine oils.

Wolfgang Schneider, Marketing Manager Motorex

"In the passenger car sector, such a development would be associated with considerable volume losses. However, I do not see this development coming so quickly. In the commercial vehicle sector, we expect much longer transitions. I don't know anything about a plan that Motorex has in store. And if there is one, no one, including me, would probably know about it. As long as there is friction, lubricants will be needed. The priorities will perhaps shift. Motorex has a very wide range, which makes me positive."

Augustin Rigaud, Marketing Manager Total Austria

"At Total, we are convinced that the lubricants market will remain important for many years to come. In addition, Total has been presenting itself as a global energy provider for several years, hence our claim 'committed to better energy'. With SunPower we are number two in the world in solar photovoltaics. Total is already active in a variety of energy markets and technologies beyond oil, for example through the purchase of energy battery manufacturer SAFT or with investments in natural gas. As our managing director Patrick Pouyanne said: 'That The 21st century will be electric.’ If fewer combustion engines are installed in ten to 20 years, we will adapt and be ready with new services and products (new filling stations and charging stations). We already have 50 hydrogen filling stations in Germany, a sign that we can always adapt to our environment.”

Authors:
Wolfgang Bauer & Philipp Bednar