Analysis of new registrations - electric cars ahead of diesel

Analysis of new registrations - electric cars ahead of diesel

Electric cars are booming and are slowly displacing pure combustion engines gasoline and diesel from the market. The diesel drive in particular is currently losing enormously in importance: in September, the diesel market share in Austria fell from 37.5 to 18.3 percent, while the market share of purely electric cars was 20.1 percent. Even in the top five markets in Western Europe (Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy and Spain), only 15.2 percent of all new cars last month were diesel engines - a year ago the proportion was 25.6 percent. For purely electric cars, the market share in the top five markets in September was 13.3 percent. Axel Preiss, Head of Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility at EY, said: "Electric cars are clearly in the fast lane - especially compared to diesel. In Austria, more new electric cars than diesel were sold for the first time last month. The mobility transition is gaining momentum rapidly - this is putting the industry under considerable pressure."

New car market on the brakes

Overall, the EU new car market declined in September by 23 percent compared to the same month last year. In Austria the decline was 19 percent compared to the previous year and 15 percent compared to September 2019. Italy (-33%) and Germany (-26%) recorded particularly strong losses. So far this year, sales across the EU are still above the previous year's level - by seven percent - but 24 percent below the 2019 level.

“Unfortunately, the EU new car market has not recovered as quickly as hoped,” says Axel Preiss. "Sales will probably be at around the very low level of the crisis year. The reason is not the demand - it is currently extremely high. The cause of the problem lies in the supply chains - there are still too few semiconductors, and other intermediate products are also becoming scarce, which in total results in significant production losses. Of course, this not only affects the car manufacturers, but also the suppliers and the car trade." 

There is currently no improvement in sight - at least not in the short term, according to Axel Preiss: "Bottlenecks in materials and problems with the supply chains are unfortunately still to be expected next year. We do not expect the situation to ease noticeably until the middle of next year." According to Axel Preiss, the economic conditions are currently good: "It is unlikely that there will be new lockdowns and demand continues to build up. As soon as the industry can deliver again, we will be able to observe a strong catch-up effect."

Electric market share doubled 

The chip shortage also has an impact on the actually booming sales market for electrified new cars: In the five largest markets in Western Europe, electric car sales only rose by 60 percent in September - in August, however, they rose by 67 percent, and in the first half of the year even by 147 percent. When it comes to plug-in hybrids, the situation is even more dramatic: in September, growth in the top 5 markets was only 28 percent. In August the growth rate was 52 percent, and in the first half of the year it was 174 percent. In Austria, the momentum is somewhat weaker: While sales climbed by 219 percent in the first half of the year, growth in September was only 85 percent. Plug-in hybrids grew by 126 percent in September, compared to an increase of 208 percent in the first half of the year.

In contrast to the reduced growth, the market share of electrified new cars is at a new record high: In Austria, the combined market share of electric cars and hybrids together was 26.3 percent in September (previous year: 11.0%). In the top five markets, 21.5 percent of all newly registered cars were equipped with an electrified drive (electric cars 13.3%, plug-in hybrids 8.1%). For comparison: a year ago, in September 2020, electric cars and plug-in hybrids together had a market share of 10.6 percent. 

Compared to the top five markets, Austria is just behind Germany, where the market share of electrified new cars was 28.7 percent in September. France and Great Britain follow behind (21.6% each); in Spain in September only 11.5 percent of new cars were plug-in hybrids or electric cars.

“E-cars and plug-in hybrids are still in high demand, probably also due to the purchase bonuses and tax advantages,” says Axel Preiss. “The reduced sales are primarily due to delivery difficulties.” Preiss assumes that in the medium term, electrified new cars will increase in sales growth, but in the longer term purely electric cars will probably be ahead: "Portfolios of both electric cars and plug-in hybrids are currently being expanded. However, plug-in hybrids are more of a bridging technology, as the money for research and development is clearly being invested in pure electric cars."